For Saints fans looking at the Premier League table heading into March, things don’t make for pretty reading. With 26 points from 27 games, Southampton need to pray for the right results in the coming weeks if they’re going to avoid the drop. Sure, Mauricio Pellegrino’s men are far from dead and buried, but it’s fair to say things need to change. Indeed, when you look through the latest stats, the numbers don’t stack up.
According to the Premier League’s statisticians, Southampton’s current shooting accuracy ratio is 28%. On top of that, 28 goals scored vs. 40 conceded makes for a disappointing attack/defence dynamic. For the odds makers, the latest betting line at Sunbets.co.uk has the Saints at 9/2 to go down. Although the likes of West Brom and Huddersfield have worse odds, those with an eye for value would probably lay a few quid on Southampton given how things are going at the moment. Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t great and it seems that all roads lead back to the manager.
Has Southampton’s Loyalty Been a Mistake?
Unlike struggling West Ham, Crystal Palace and Swansea, Southampton have stuck with their manager. In one respect, this sort of loyalty is admirable, especially in today’s cutthroat game. However, is it best for the club? If you ask most fans, the answer is no. Unfortunately, with two-thirds of the season done and dusted, it looks as though Pellegrino is here to stay for the next few months at least. One of the main issues with the Argentine’s managerial style is his tactical decisions. While a manager can often be forgiven for starting the wrong player, substituting someone that doesn’t deserve it isn’t on. Following Southampton’s 2-0 loss to Liverpool was a prime example of Pellegrino’s tactical blunders. Playing Pierre-Emile Højbjerg in the 10 position was a mistake, especially when Mario Lemina is stronger in that position.
Another move that baffled fans was the faith put in Dusan Tadic despite a poor performance but substitute James Ward-Prowse. Why stick with a player who proved ineffective in the middle of the park against Liverpool but remove one that was at least pinging in some dangerous crosses? Only Pellegrino really knows the answer to that question, but it’s just another example of the tactical shortcomings of Pellegrino.
Away Form Could Bury the Saints
Looking out towards the horizon, the grey clouds appear to be gathering. Away from home this season, Southampton have only won five times and only one of those was in the Premier League. This inability to get a result away from St Mary’s is obviously a problem, but it’s an even bigger issue when you consider that five of the next six matches are away. As we move closer to the end of the season, runs matter and the next six games could define the club’s season. As it stands, a win or two would put Southampton closer to safety. However, with the away record being what it is, fans won’t have much hope over the next few weeks.
Now, it would be unfair to lay all the blame at Pellegrino’s door. The loss of Charlie Austin certainly hasn’t helped. Prior to limping off against Huddersfield back in December, Austin had netted his sixth goal of the season and his fifth in seven Premier League games. That sort of form had fans and pundits hailing it as a resurgence for the forward. However, in a case of extreme bad luck, a hamstring tear has kept him out for almost two months. Unsurprisingly, losing one of your best players at a critical stage in the season isn’t going to help. Of course, Pellegrino could have spent some money in the January transfer window, but it would have been hard to replace Austin.
For this, Pellegrino can be forgiven. However, for his other infractions, fans aren’t likely to be so forgiving. As we’ve said, it’s probably too late for Southampton to get rid of their manager now and that could bite them come the end of the season. Should the Saints pull off a miracle and survive, it will likely be in spite of the manager’s tactics. However, should the club fall from the top tier of English football, you can be fairly confident that a lot of the blame will be directed towards the manager.
