2024/2025 has been a devastating football season for Manchester United. A new team manager is quite concerned about the club’s future and wants to discover the reasons behind this situation.
The defeat of Manchester United has been established through a disastrous amount of losses this season. After a notorious club ended its worst year since the Premier League’s inception with only 51 points in 2024, a new manager Ruben Amorim has decided to go further.
At the end of the year, a Portuguese spoke about fans being tired of excuses from the club’s side. He realized on the spot that in the Premier League, anyone can beat anyone despite past accomplishments. Everything happened in reality pretty soon.
First, Manchester United drew with eternal rivals Liverpool (2:2), and then the team knocked out Arsenal on penalties in the FA Cup. These results suggest that better times are on the horizon. But even with these incredible outcomes, the Manchester United team is 13 points above the relegation zone.
So, is the club really at risk of relegation from the Premier League? In this publication, we will try to assess the club’s position and what needs to happen for the team with the most titles (20 wins) in the Premier League to be relegated from the competition.
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Undoubtedly, Manchester United has been the most successful team of the Premier League era, having won 13 titles since the formation of the EPL in 1992/93. Before the retirement of its manager Sir Alex Ferguson in 2013, the team had never finished lower than third in the Premier League. Even after 10 years of huge missteps without Alex, Manchester United’s worst result was 8th place with Erik ten Hag last season.
By comparison, out of Man United’s five major rivals, Liverpool is the only club that has never finished outside the top 10, with their lowest being the eighth in 2012-13 and 2015-16. Arsenal (12th), Chelsea (14th), Tottenham (15th) and Manchester City (relegated in 1996 and 2001) have all finished in the bottom half of the table in the Premier League era.
The Red Devils have nothing to worry about, right? Despite good performances against Liverpool and Arsenal, a 3-1 defeat to Brighton followed in the league, showing the club is in the midst of the worst season in Premier League history. Sure, there was a 1-0 away win over Fulham, but that hard-fought victory showed no recovery. United’s six defeats in December have left them with 18 goals conceded in all competitions. They haven’t conceded that many in a month since 1964.
There’s one simple statistic that will determine whether a team gets relegated to the Championship: can they average one point per game? Draw 38 games in a row? Win 12, draw two, and lose 24? No matter how you count, 38 points would have been enough to survive, starting in 2017/18.
What does the average relegated team look like? Let’s take the team that has finished 18th over the last seven seasons. Here’s what you need to be better at if you want to keep your position in the Premier League:
- Goals: 1.0 per game
- Goals conceded: 1.69 per game
- Goal difference: 0.69 per game.
So, throughout a full season, you’ll need to play at a higher level than a team that scores 38 goals and concedes 64. That’s not a high bar, especially when you’re Manchester United which has always been on top.
Will Manchester United be relegated shortly? After 10 league games under Amorim’s coaching, United’s performance is not much different from the average 18th-placed team we looked at earlier:
- Goals: 1.2 per game
- Goals conceded: 1.8 per game
- Goal difference: 0.6 per game
What does this statistical data mean? The top club has scored goals at a rate higher than the relegated team but conceded goals at a rate slightly lower, suggesting that the team has scored slightly more than the average 18th-placed team over the past seven years. But in terms of pure points per game, the Red Devils have not reached that saving grace. They have picked up just eight points from nine games, with a total of 34 points or less than the lowest total recorded by a non-relegated team since 2017/18.
If Manchester United had picked up points at this rate the whole season, they would have been relegated. Perhaps, the biggest reason why this notorious club isnt at risk of relegation is that there are so many other dreadful teams in the Premier League at the moment. According to the supercomputer predictions, Southampton is expected to finish at the bottom of the list with 19 points, followed by Leicester with 28 points and then Ipswich with 32 points. So, to be relegated, Manchester United would have to be significantly behind at least two of those teams, as well as the trio of Everton, Crystal Palace, and West Ham. It should be mentioned that all three are currently below Manchester United in the standings.
