It was always going to be a matter of time before the decision-makers in England decided to intervene and stop the league games from continuing. Some high profile names like Mikel Arteta and Callum Hudson-Odoi probably jolted the Premier League and EFL from sleep to come up with the recent decision where they decided to suspend the league until 3rd April. Nobody knows whether the situation will improve by that time or not.
Nobody has seen days like this, so everyone is in unchartered territory. The top two tiers of English football is on the verge of seeing two fallen giants getting back to their perch with Liverpool all but wrapping up the league and Leeds United on the cusp of getting back to the Premier League.
However, as things stand, that will be on hold. The Premier League clubs will probably be best suited to sustain through this tough period, but it’s the lower league clubs who will face the most issues. Financially, Premier League earns most of its money through broadcasting revenue and playing behind closed doors after the suspension is done with could be a solution for them.
Why EFL and lower division clubs could be worst hit?
But its the EFL and lower division clubs that would be worst hit. It is believed that Championship clubs rely on 1/3rd of their total revenue (The Athletic) based on match day incomes. The lower you go down the league pyramid; the more impact matchday revenues have on clubs.
We have already seen few clubs go under last summer and playing rest of the season behind the closed door could take a big hit for clubs in the lower division.
The extension of the league for a further few weeks or months could cause an issue with player’s contract as well. Most players have their deal up until May and some until June. Imagine loan players being out of contract or players running out of deals before the current season gets over.
Writing the season off completely also seems to be out of the picture and only seem to be supported by fans of teams that don’t have much to play for right now. With the season already being in its final stage, there is no doubt that EFL would look to complete it. The financial ramifications of promotion and relegation for clubs are going to be huge so cancelling the ongoing season would likely happen in the worst of worst case scenario.
As things stand, pushing the Euro 2020 to next year and allowing the league extra time to finish off seems to be the best solution. However, there is no guarantee that the pandemic would be over after a month or so. But positives are coming our way that the virus can be controlled. Cases in China and other Asian countries have shown that several people have gone on to recover from the Coronavirus.
Containment seems to be working with the daily rate of new Covid-19 infections in China now the lowest in the world in percentage terms. However, the real test would be when people get back to their normal life again.
We believe that fixtures might go ahead in empty stadiums after the current suspension is lifted, but the Championship and lower-end clubs would be feeling hard done by at the financial level.
