With Sunderland and Middlesbrough looking set to be relegated due to their low point tally’s and poor form, the question must now be asked, who will fill the final relegation spot?
Swansea City currently occupies said spot with Hull City just two points above them. But with four games of the season remaining a two-point gap could be easily breached by Swansea City. Unfortunately for Swansea fans, Hull looks the better side. Therefore, Swansea could be facing relegation after spending six consecutive years in the Premier League.
Here is why Hull City will win the relegation battle against Swansea City.
Hull’s home record under Marco Silva
Since Marco Silva was appointed the manager on January 5th, 2017 Hull have played seven home Premier League games. Hull’s record during these seven games is six wins and one draw. Considering Hull had won just three games in the first half of the year before Silva took over, six wins in less than half a season is a major improvement. Also, Silva himself boasts an even more impressive home record. He has not lost a home game in over three years as a manager.
That stat is incredibly impressive and important. Not only will it give Hull confidence when playing games at home, it will also terrify anybody who has to play them there.
Furthermore, as Swansea’s Paul Clement took over just one day before Silva, it is worth comparing their records. Marco Silva boasts a very respectable 50% win loss ratio in all competitions. Whereas Paul Clement has a much less impressive 35.7% win loss ratio. This shows just how important Hull’s home form is under Silva as although both clubs got new managers at the same time, Hull’s home record means they have a much better W/L record than Swansea in 2017.
Therefore, the fact Hull are able to do so well at home could be the deciding factor on them surviving this season.
Swansea’s tough run of games
With the gap so close between the two sides and just four games left, the remaining fixtures will be very important. Hull City must play Southampton (A), Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A) and Tottenham Hotspur (H). Swansea, on the other hand, faces Manchester United (A), Everton (H), Sunderland(A), and West Brom (H). When comparing the two team’s fixtures it does not look good for Swansea for several reasons. They must face a trip to Manchester United who are still battling for 4th place. They must also host Everton who are also competing for European football. Compare these games to Hull’s run and Swansea could be in serious trouble.
Hull play Southampton who have little to play for as they have too few points to challenge for Europe. They also play Sunderland who should be a win 100% especially given it is at Hull. Then, their final two games are against Palace which they should win as Palace look to be safe so will not be fighting as much and then Spurs which could be a tough game but it is at Hull so their impressive home record will no doubt help them out.
Thus, the fact Swansea have a much tougher run of games against teams who will be much more up for it means they are likely to be the team to take the final place in the relegation zone.
Recent form
Finally, another stat that spells trouble for Swansea and joy for Hull is both teams recent form. In their last five league games, Hull have won three and lost two (9 points). Swansea, on the other hand, has won just one, drawn one and lost three (4 points).
Therefore, Swansea looks to be in serious trouble as their recent form is very poor. It is especially poor when you see that their draw was against floundering Middlesbrough. A team who has not won all year and a team Swansea really should have beat. It gets even more worrying when you note that Hull also played Middlesbrough and unlike Swansea, they trounced Boro 4-2. Given that the two sides played Middlesbrough just three days apart it shows that Hull are doing much better than Swansea. Because they were able to destroy Boro whereas Swansea could not even break them down even though Boro played just as badly in both fixtures.
This indicates Hull are most likely to beat Swansea in the relegation battle as they are in much better form than The Swans. They’ve also picked up five more points than Swansea in their last five matches. Hull are also generally just playing the better football and look to be staying up.
